The U.S. Labor Department recently announced that the country’s economy actually produced 818,000 fewer jobs from April 2023 to March 2024 than initially reported. This revision, amounting to a 0.5% dip in total payroll levels, marks the most significant decrease since 2009, falling almost 30% short of the initially stated 2.9 million jobs.
These revisions were the result of an analysis of data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This annual process sometimes reveals discrepancies from the monthly updates previously provided.
The CES preliminary benchmark announcement was delayed, and the reason is currently under investigation. No further details are available regarding this delay at this time.
August 21, 2024— BLS-Labor Statistics (@BLS_gov)
“These revisions were not entirely unexpected, given the initial estimates pointed to a million fewer jobs,” remarked Robert Frick, a corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “While this does not negate the ongoing economic expansion, it does highlight the likelihood of slower job growth in the coming months, increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts.”
Related: CPI Report: Inflation Hits 3-Year Low, Analysts Predict Fed Will Cut Rates Next Month
The revised job numbers had a ripple effect across various sectors, with professional and business services seeing a reduction of 358,000 jobs. Other industries like leisure and hospitality, manufacturing, and trade, transportation, and utilities also experienced significant downward adjustments.
As investors eagerly anticipate Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech in Wyoming, speculations abound on the potential for eased monetary policies, particularly in light of the anticipated rate cut in September.
“The revised labor market data suggests a weaker outlook than previously thought,” noted Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. “With a deteriorating job market, the Fed may prioritize addressing both aspects of its dual mandate, hinting at a possible interest rate cut at the September meeting.”
Related: The Federal Reserve Is on Instagram
