JPMorgan Chase has raised the odds of a recession in the US economy from 25% to 35%, with a 45% chance of a recession in the second half of 2025.
The bank’s economists highlighted the slowing wage inflation in the US compared to other developed market economies, leading to a decrease in service price inflation and implying a restrictive policy stance by the Federal Reserve.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon reinforced the prediction of an impending recession in an interview with CNBC, citing various factors like geopolitics, housing, deficits, spending, and quantitative tightening.
The bank also anticipates rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and November 2024.
Last week’s jobs report, with the unemployment rate at 4.1% in June, has added to the economic concerns, leading to volatility in the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq.
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